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    • @Eric Looking at this and squinting hard, it looks as if the mathematically proper way to deal with this would be to do a discrete sum over all possible deck permutations and positions ("position" meaning number of cards drawn over time) using the value you suggest, then dividing by some factor that depends on deck size, to get a closed formula for something like an Average Deck Value (ADV).

      Then, manipulating the inequality ADV(deck_small) < ADV(deck_large) (basically stating that we're looking for a situation where the larger deck is better than the smaller deck) to remove constant factors etc. might lead to some more clues under which circumstances this can be true, if at all.