What are the early warning signs that an industry will not meet expectations?
Sometimes investing feels like a game of Titanic: hold your sinking stock too long and you’ll go down with the ship. I did consulting work for a local wealth management firm many years ago, and in talking with one of the principals I was impressed with how much research they did from the 10-Ks and various other reports. A carefully written footnote might hint at a pending disruption from a key supplier, or a continuing rise in price of a core commodity. But with a capricious President on economic decisions, reading the tea leaves appears an even more complex endeavor.
Tech got a severe body blow with the Trump administration’s decision yesterday to put a freeze on H-1B visas, three quarters of which are used by the Tech industry to bring in foreign talent to the US:
“‘This is a full-frontal attack on American innovation and our nation’s ability to benefit from attracting talent from around the world,’ said Todd Schulte of FWD.us, a pro-immigration advocacy group for big tech companies.
“‘America’s continued success depends on companies having access to the best talent from around the world,’ Google said. The tech giant’s C.E.O., Sundar Pichai — who was born in India.”
It’s anyone’s guess how long the freeze will last, or whether it will be quickly reversed and forgotten. Should CEOs start hiring fortune tellers?