I came across this interesting article in The Guardian and wanted to get some thoughts on this. Namely, how much of an advantage should Joe Biden have thanks to the protests surrounding George Floyd's death and COVID-19?
I agree with the take in The Guardian. I think Biden should have a pretty huge advantage right now, but there's still a creeping chance that Trump comes back to beat him. He was counted out against Hillary Clinton and won. That alone should make Biden feel uneasy about any perceived lead that he might have.
At the same time, Trump won by such narrow margins in 2016 and a lot of people voted for him that weren't a part of his base. He's not grown his base since 2016 and has certainly lost the votes of people who voted for him. I have a brother who voted for Trump in 2016 who I don't think will vote for him again and my sister voted for Trump as well in 2016 but so far, she's not planning on voting for him in 2020. A close friend of mine who previously has been very wary of Joe Biden shot me a text earlier this week saying he and his wife are now considering voting for Biden in light of how Trump has handled these protests. He's an independent voter who did not vote for Trump or Hillary in 2016.
That's just three people, but still a sample of how the electorate is feeling. Personally, I think Trump has an even tougher hill to climb in 2020. Even if you factor in some Joe Biden gaffs. He's exposed himself for who he is, hasn't expanded his base, and has so far lost the support of some who voted for him the last time around. It'll be interesting to see if Trump can once again shock the world. If he does, it will be an even more amazing victory than 2016.