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    • Oil has crashed, it is currently negative and dropped below zero for the first time in history...but you know it will rebound. Could this be one of the best investment opportunities to drop in your lap, today, this week, this month....

      Could be a good one to 'go long' on.


    • What exactly are you investing in/buying? A six month option-to-purchase contract that you’ll resell before the delivery date? I guess that would be called a futures contract purchased on the Chicago Board of Trade.

      Or are you purchasing the actual oil with an open delivery date?

      I think during a recession, there are going to be extraordinary bargains because most people are keeping as much cash on hand for survival rather than investing. So supply-exceeding-demand opportunities are going to be plentiful, if you can buy and hold until we get out of the coming recession.

      Back to the oil, I think there’s the added risk of more and more private universities divesting their fossil fuel stock portfolios, driving down long-term demand for those stocks. Russia, or any of the OPEC nations, can reneg on agreed to reductions in production to stabilize prices. Plus, solar and wind continue to become cheaper and more adopted. The EV market continues to grow with Rivian, Tesla and the major automakers all producing their own versions—GM introduced an electric Hummer model during the Super Bowl. Plus, future Climate Change regulations could reduce demand or squeeze profits.

      Curious as to what others think of this investment opportunity. (Great conversation starter btw, @rtwPaul)

    • Sadly I don't have a boatload of cash, or even a dingy, more like a small pot that I keep my...well you know the rest.

      I would love to be jumping into futures or options right now, but simply don't have the bank roll and knowhow anymore, as I've jumped in to a few other areas a week or so ago.

      Let's just for me in my situation ETF's are a better option, and affordable

      I can sit on this, long, and surprisingly enough the small amount I could afford to invest could pay for a year or two or more of travel, when levels reach what they were when CV started.

      ***This is NOT an advisement to invest, purely pointing out what some might have missed. I look at this opportunity and consider it like the advice I used to give new gamblers who ventured in any of the casinos I used to manage..."only gamble what you can afford to lose!"

    • I know the airlines are buying future jet fuel deliveries with unrestricted cash (price based on future market). Oil may never be this cheap again once Russia, the Saudi's and OPEC work this out.

      If you have nerves of steel, might be time to go long on a call option.



    • I hear you, there was an article the other day about the rack rate of gasoline in some areas as low as 12 cents per gallon, in that article (that I can't find) they also mentioned...a massive dip in oil prices is imminent and the wealthy and knowledgeable are going to clean up.

      I think that time is now...but it's just a guess...hehe!

    • I think the thing about the May crude contract is that you MUST take delivery on the day the contract ends, or try to sell the contract to someone else. Right now there is effectively no empty storage in the continental US, so you have to PAY someone to take it off your hands, the negative pricing right now.

      Look at the prices for North Sea Crude, they’re not negative, but still cheap in the mid twenties when I looked earlier this afternoon I believe.

      I have no faith that I can trade better than folks who do it every day. All day long.

      Good luck, but make certain you understand the rules completely if you trade futures.

    • you pretty much said what the article in the post above says, but it describes it in more detail...hence the point of not buying futures but etf's at bottom dollar, or close to it.

      Somehow I doubt the US will become Venezuela and have fuel at a penny a gallon, prices will go back up...eventually

    • but make certain you understand the rules completely if you trade futures

      You certainly have that right! I "played" with futures a bit back in the 80s. Not a good way to sleep well at night.

      My mother was a retired school teacher. But, she had a knack for picking stocks like nobody else I've seen. After she retired, I helped set up her Apple IIe to track financial data and investments using AppleWorks spreadsheet on a dual 5.25" floppy drive. She'd read her romance novels and watch the ticker go across the bottom of the TV; then make her investment decisions.

      She wasn't a day trader, but, certainly a weekly trader. And could she ever play options. She had a quite a nest egg when she passed away. For quite some time we thought my dad was the stock guru. Nope, it was mom. My dad just bought based on her advice.

      My option plays back in the 80s, all my mom's ideas.

      Sure wish she could make a call on this play for me!

    • I agree - ETFs don’t typically have expiration dates, so if you can wait long enough prices should move higher at some point.

      USO pays no dividend, and costs you 0.79 % annually - if there is major inflation after all the governmental stimulus, instead of more typical deflation in a recession, then the price of oil might prosper some. I would prefer something that pays me while I wait, but my investment style is very old school and out of favor these days.

      Edit - headsup to @rtwPaul

      If one is committed to the oil industry - don't search for gold, sell picks and shovels to the miners at a profit 😃

      EPD might be more to my taste....Enterprise Products Partners pays a 10.9% dividend and insiders have bought almost 4 milllion shares in March of this year.... just sayin'

      I find it reassuring when executives and board members are buying a stock that I am interested in.

      A 10% dividend, even without a rise in share price, might allow a lot of 3rd world country motorcycle riding, for a very long time.

    • Same here. Old school, WarrenBuffett style investing in companies that make things people need day in and day out, paying dividends. But that's the conservative investor/retiree approach...I think.

    • Its tempting, particularly if one has a small cash pot to begin with, but I would say you should avoid any investment approach that involves leverage (e.g. spread bets or contracts for differences). You can quickly go underwater on these positions and the margin call could wipe you out. Whilst leverage can amplify gains, it does the same for losses.

    • A brief story about USO that is not very optimistic at all.... Apparently, USO actually owns some oil futures contracts, like the ~1/3 of thecontract for June delivery which is repricing much like the May one did, if I read this right.

      I did pick up some EPD today, though. Not sure yet is it was smart, or really dumb. Time will tell.

    • yes USO looks like a dog, not what I bought, for both of us it'll probably be a long wait, but once numbers are back to something similar as they were at the start of the year, it'll be good. Day trading is a thing of the past for me.

      I might take your lead on the EPD once the dust settles. One thing I struggled to find was historical data on the divided

    • Last week, or the week prior, Charlie Munger (Buffett's life long business partner) was asked what they've been doing during the market sell-off? Munger's reply, "sitting on our ass". He also said they were looking for buying opportunities; no doubt, there were many for those with cash in hand.

      My dad started investing in BRK in 1965. I started investing in BRK when "B" shares were offered in 1996.

      I stuck it out with BRK (Buffett/Munger) during the late 90s when the "high tech" economy was booming in the financial sector. All the TV talking heads on the cable financial channels were saying Buffett was a dinosaur and had lost his "Midas" touch. Buffett will be a "has been" as the "new" market and economy developed, leaving Buffett in the dust. Hmmm...

      I suspect if you were a day trader (not me, never tried to time the market) and had an inkling of what you were doing, you could have made a boat load of cash in the late 90s. But, many not only lost a boat load of cash, but the boat as well, when it all came crashing down. Leaving BRK standing prosperous with tens of billions of cash on hand.

      It was then I knew I'd stick with BRK.B for a lifetime (at least Buffett's/Munger's).

      Even so, did anyone note where Buffett put his wife's inheritance/holdings last year?

      S&P 500 Index fund...90% Vanguard Index 500 Admiral Shares

      US government bonds...10% Vanguard Short Term Federal Admiral

      That's where I'd park my money if riding around the world and didn't want to worry about keeping an eye on it or market fluctuations; even wide swings due to pandemics. The Vanguard 500 Index Admiral has been very good to me over the decades as well.

    • The best is yet to occur for you; the first 25 years of compound interest don’t really seem that significant, but the next 20 really pack a wallop.
      Einstein called compound interest the 8th wonder of the world. I think Charlie Munger agrees with him.