I don't know anything about Hollywood politics, so I have no predictions to offer. A couple of comments though: The cinematography in The Favourite was exceptional--quirky low and ultra-wide angle shots that managed to capture the costumes and the vast surroundings in glorious detail. Original work that deserves recognition, I thought. I haven't seen all the contenders in the Foreign Film category, and while I liked Roma, I thought Shoplifters was brilliant. Understated and powerful, you aren't even aware of how involved you've become till everything falls apart at the end.