On the surface, this seems like a ludicrous question to ask: Could Joe Biden, a Democrat, win Utah, the longest Republican voting state in the country? Well, tied for longest voting red state to be technical. The last time Utah pulled the lever blue was in 1964 when they voted for Lyndon B. Johnson. Since then, the Beehive State hasn’t looked back and voted Republican with very little resistance. 

However, 2016 was the first time since 1964 that the Republican candidate did not get the majority of the votes in Utah. Trump won Utah in 2016 with just 45.5% of the vote. 55.5% of the vote went to Hillary Clinton (27.5%), Evan McMullin (21.5%), and other (7.5%). When you look at these numbers and consider the fact that (A) Trump hasn’t grown his base and actually lost some support with the fact that (B) Biden doesn’t have as high of negatives as Hillary Clinton, one has to think that this could be the year the streak ends. 

The way Biden wins Utah is if he gets around 35% of the votes, Trump gets around 34% and the other 29% vote for a third party candidate or protest vote for neither candidate. A win in Utah for Biden would be incredibly narrow, but mathematically, I could see it happening. Biden getting 35% of the vote compared to Hillary’s 27.5% doesn’t sound crazy and Trump losing ground to the point that he gets 34% of the vote doesn’t sound all that crazy, either. Especially when you consider he garnered just 45.5% of the votes last in 2016. 

By my calculations if Trump gets 75.0% of the votes that he got in 2016, meaning one in four Utah voters who voted for him last time don’t vote for him in 2020, he’ll get 34.125% of the vote instead of 45.5%. So, all it would take to swing things in Biden’s favor is to have one in four Utah voters who voted for Trump last time not vote for Trump again and have half of them defect to vote for him instead. As a matter of fact, I could see Trump losing more than 25.0% of the Utah voters who voted for him, creating a real path to victory for Biden. 

One other factor that I haven’t yet mentioned is those who didn’t vote in Utah in 2016. You had a lot people stay home because they didn’t like Trump or Clinton and didn’t care to vote for a third party candidate. There was lot of “how can I choose between two candidates who are awful?” chatter going on in Utah. That’s why McMullin did as well as he did. In 2020, you could see a surge of voters who didn’t vote last time coming out to vote for Biden for no other reason than to remove Trump. I don’t know how many of those voters are out there, but there could be enough to give Biden that extra boost he needs. 

A final factor is newly registered voters in the state of Utah. Democrats tend to do better among younger voters, so it stands to reason that Biden will get a bit of a bump as well from voters who were under the age of 18 in 2016. Rocking the youth vote will be key for Utah to flip blue. There’s also the factor of people who moved from other states into Utah, but that’s a group that I really can’t quantify one way or the other. 

The bottom line is that while Trump should be favored to win Utah, a path to victory for Biden is conceivable. The fact that 270towin.com labels Utah as “likely Trump” and not “safe Trump” indicates that a window of opportunity is there for Biden. It’s just a matter of him threading the needle and giving Utah voters real hope that he can win. If there is a real belief in that state that it can flip blue, maybe that will be enough to push Biden over the top.  

Poll: Donald Trump leads Biden by just 3 points in Utah | KUTV

(Credit: Getty Images)

The SLC Trib poses the idea that Trump’s support may collapse here as Covid becomes more prevalent and people are personally effected by his lack of leadership...

Thanks for the thoughtful analysis. I don't understand Utah politics and would love to understand it more, but I notice my friends and family who live there can't understand it either. What I do know is some of my extended family believe Trump to be the greatest president we've had in 50 years and perhaps ever.

I couldn't understand why Jon Huntsman got a chilly reaction when he returned to Utah either.

Many thought former Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. would get a third term. What happened?Many believed former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. would be easily elected to a third term as governor after returning to Utah from Moscow last fall as U.S. ambassador to Russia. What went wrong?www.deseret.com

My understanding is Salt Lake County is split and might even be left leaning while the rest of the state is right wing. That seems to be what's happening. Going back to our conversation on Vermont, what would permanently flip Utah blue is Salt Lake County becoming more dominant than the rest of the state in terms of population.

I think Biden winning Utah would be an annomally and much more about a distaste for Trump than an embracing of the Democratic Party.

Also take into account that the voting districts are quite gerrymandered in favor of state Repubs. So gerrymandered in fact, that a ballot referendum to establish an independent advisory committee to map out new districts after the 2020 census (that’s a whole ‘nother story) passed in 2018. That does not mean that the overwhelmingly R legislature can’t override it, though. And they have overridden every other ballot initiative that passed on that ballot so far. 🥴😡

Utah-yes, Utah-just passed an important progressive measureAfter two weeks of vote-counting, the measure passed by a tiny margin in one of the country's reddest states.www.motherjones.com

In related news, it looks somewhat possible that Biden could win Texas. We lived and worked in many parts of Texas for years and I think a pretty big factor is college-educated whites moving into the cities like Austin and Dallas for their careers. That must be a difficult dilemma for Texas Republicans who want to see the economy improve but don't want to lose power.

I feel like that's a factor in Utah too as more tech workers and startups do pretty well there along the Wasatch Front.

Democrats have long had a pipe dream of turning Texas blue. Will it finally come true in 2020?According to Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, "If it still looks like this come Labor Day, quite possibly"www.salon.com

Texas and Arizona could both go to Biden. Both are also in the process of flipping blue. The only question is when. Maybe 2020 will be the year it happens. What a disaster that would be/will be for the Republicans to lose those states.

Interesting tid-bit that came across the wires yesterday—Pence is scheduled to head to *Arizona* where, among other things, he will meet with an LDS For Trump group.

I’m hoping the reason he has to go to AZ for this is because there isn’t a similar group in Utah... 🥴

Yeah, I notice the approval of Trump among Mormon men remains at something like 65% — higher among older ones, lower among millenials. The church-owned Deseret News was cheerleading back in February, dunno if they still are. The current LDS president is a doctor, so you'd think he would be hip to the handling of the virus.

From almost purple back to red: Has Utah warmed to Donald Trump?Inside President Trump's rising approval ratings in Utahwww.deseret.com

Bad news for Utah—the editor at the Tribune just resigned because she could no longer deal with the demands coming from the COB—Huntsman. That leaves us with a very crippled non-LDS media situation here. Maybe the public radio station is the only news outlet that doesn’t have a political agenda?

I'm very sorry to hear that!!

Interesting read. I know Erica Evans, the author of the article, from the Stanford Ward. She's been with the Deseret News for a couple of years now and does good work.

From what I gathered in the piece, it sounds like some Republicans at least have warmed up to Trump and are more comfortable with him. Almost like a frog in boiling hot water kinda deal. At first it felt too hot, but now, they've gotten used to it.

It should be noted that Erica's article was published in February of this year, whereas the poll from KUTV was published in May. I do think what helps Biden's chances in Utah is that he is perceived as more of a moderate whereas Sanders and Warren are viewed as far left Democrats.

I also don't take Erica's article to mean Trump will gain more votes in 2020 in Utah than he did in 2016. Maybe he's solidified a certain portion of those who voted for him, but I'd have to think there's a not small percentage of voters who voted for him last time who feel they can't vote for him again. People like my sister who voted for him because they wanted to back a Republican but now feel like backing him would be immoral and wrong.

I still think there is an outside chance that Trump loses support in Utah and Biden gains more than Hillary such than Biden wins the state with 35% of the vote, narrowly edging out Trump. Mathematically, it could happen.

Btw, a more recent Deseret News piece says Trump is edging Biden in Utah. The Deseret News does have more of a conservative bent whereas the Salt Lake Tribune has more of a liberal bent. So, I do think we should consider the source of these polling stories a bit. But, I would say that Trump should be favored to win Utah. I'm just saying I think there is a chance Biden sneaks out with a win.

Donald Trump holding on to lead over Joe Biden in UtahPresident Donald Trump may be trailing former Vice President Joe Biden nationally, but he's holding onto his lead in Utah over the Democratic challenger, according to a new Deseret News/Hinckley Institute poll that also shows a majority of the state's voters like the job he's doing, including his handling of the pandemic.www.deseret.com

I think there’s a good chance that Senator Romney‘s attitude about Trump might shake people up here a little bit.

The Lincoln Project (basically Repubs against Trump) are getting better at their podcast - instead of whining so much, they are starting to analyze the way the Republican Party has screwed up—moving from having a moral perspective to moral bankruptcy, and talking about it openly with fellow Repubs. Kind of fascinating. I thought the recent “It Was All a Lie” interview with Stuart Stevens (author and Repub political consultant) was a particularly interesting conversation:

‎The Lincoln Project on Apple Podcasts‎Politics · 2020podcasts.apple.com

I’ll give it a listen. Thanks!

Is it just me or is anyone else left scratching their heads about Lincoln being the hero of the current Republican party? He defeated the confederacy and freed the slaves. Seems the opposite of what the party stands for now.

I think that’s the point... Lincoln is the hero of the Never-Trumper Republicans. In response, Trump has tried to associate himself with Lincoln by always saying, “I’m the greatest president except maybe A Lincoln” malarkey...

The economist did a nice piece on what a Biden presidency could mean:

Well apparently he does want his face on Mt. Rushmore.

Trump says adding his face to Mount Rushmore would be a 'good idea.' It would likely be impossible"The rock that surrounds the sculpted faces is not suitable for additional carving, an official with the National Park Service said in June.www.usatoday.com

Maybe he isn’t their hero anymore?

America and the rest of the world needs Biden to win. Fortunately, I think he will.

This has to be a joke, right? Evidently not, though. Crazy!!

Lots good points in this video. I think what’s especially true is Biden’s open-mindedness and more centrist approach makes him more appealing to the broader electorate. I’ve said this in other threads, but I too think being boring and dull helps him in this election. Trump is exciting in a bad way.

Speaking of Utah, Kamala Harris will debate Mike Pence at the University of Utah on October 7...

Kamala Harris Will Shred Mike Pence in the Vice Presidential DebateAnd Joe Biden knows why that matters.www.thenation.com

And in case you missed it, Joe Biden earlier today announced Kamala Harris as his VP pick...

Joe Biden picks Kamala Harris as his VPEarlier today, Democratic presumptive presidential nominee Joe Biden announced that California Senator Kamala Harris will be his running mate in the 2020 U.S. presidential election. We knew that ...www.cake.co

Trump is even dividing the LDS Church. 😳

This satirical info sheet is based on the real one the Arizona group Latter-Day Saints for Trump published—it appeared in a Twitter thread started by KSL (church-owned TV station in UT). The names of the advisory board members have not been changed—you’ll see Senator Orrin Harch listed, as well as Sean Reyes, the current Attorney General of Utah (up for re-election in Nov), as well as the Repub candidate for the only US House of Reps. seat that is currently held by a Democrat.

(For those who are not familiar, King Noah is an evil character from the Book of Mormon).