It’s a tough question, especially given so many unknowns.
https://apple.news/Ap0LQI8ILTl2MSDR_OmfdCw
How long should we wait? Under what circumstances? How to calculate risk vs reward? Who matters most? How to factor in the disadvantaged? How to calculate the risk of war, starvation and economic disaster? Let people take their chances? How to protect? There is no easy answer and certainly no answer everyone could agree on.
History has shown that those who did the most serious lockdown and early, were the ones that had the least effect on the mid to long term economy. I think the news article says it pretty well. I think we have to use something like the bubble idea. So we slowly expand our bubble. Keep wearing masks, keep physical distancing when possible and don’t go places unnecessarily if it involves the possibility of spread. We have to go around imagining we are the carrier of the plague in essence. We have to stop thinking we aren’t at risk so not worry about practising safe measures. We have to be more considerate of others. I think it shouldn’t be too big of an ask to want people to use face masks on public transport, grocery shopping and other places where people are in close contact. I suspect young people will be the vectors of this illness as they seem the least interested in practising social distancing. That’s what I’ve seen here and from my younger friend in California. They think they are too young to be greatly affected and in many cases can’t be bothered. The younger generation is often the most compassionate so maybe they aren’t understanding the bigger picture. Of course it’s the outliers that’s are often the problem. It’s not a simple answer and any answer can be found to have fault. Balancing the economy with those most at risk is tough. I often say that we should consider a thought experiment. Imagine we were going to be birthed into a society at random. Might be rich, might be poor, might be smart, might have a disability and so on. Now create the society to be the best world you could imagine living in any of the random spots and situations you might be born into.
New Zealand makes a decision whether or not to relax our measures in 3 hours.
As of Thursday NZ will relax a significant number of restrictions with restaurants, malls, cinemas, shops, health services, hairdressers, and may other places opening for business, though still with some distancing rules in place, and a maximum of 10 people at public gatherings, purely to make contact tracing easier if required.
The following Monday - May 18 - schools and early childhood centres will open.
Finally on Thursday May 21 bars will be allowed to reopen.
anything above 1 will be a disaster given enough time. We will figure it out. The world is currently conducting the largest human experiment ever done.
I live in the Bay Area (Silicon Valley), California, and I'm surprised we don't as many cases as we should. Whenever I venture out to a grocery shop, hardware store, or for a walk in nature, I see people on polar ends of the safety spectrum.
Some people are taking the threat of catching or spreading the virus very seriously. They cover their faces with masks, wearing gloves, and rigorously sanitizing touch areas. Others behave like the world hasn't changed at all.
The fundamental problem is most people only see numbers; they don't see people behind those numbers. The hospitals are out of sight and out of mind. While I do think that we should slowly open up essential businesses and industries, non-essential ones should stay closed. I'm in full support of the Bay Area's shelter-in-place order until May 31st.
Santa Clara County (California) has a population of 2M (1,937,570) people. Our county had the first known COVID-19 death in the United States:
We were also one of the first counties to go into the shelter-in-place order. According to the county dashboard we've had a total of 2,341 cases and 129 death since the start of the pandemic. 52 deaths came from Long-term Care facilities.
Shelter-in-place is clearly working here despite not everyone following it. 2 million residents, 2 thousand cases, 129 deaths.
There is a ton more data to look through if you are interested:
the White House and CDC earlier released guidelines saying that they wanted to see a 14 day decline in cases before places started opening up more widely. Now the president has changed his mind and is pushing for quicker opening. I think those economies that feel pressured to do so will end up seeing a greater negative effect on their economy long term. We all want the economy to open as soon as makes sense but you’ll need the contact tracing and testing in place before it’s effective in reducing transmission rates to below 1. It’s a tough call but I think the president is focused on himself and not the bigger picture. If only we knew what would happen in the medium term.
I think the key is to open in phases. You can't just open everything at once. The path back to normalcy is to open things in phases based on the necessity of the service and the ability to keep everyone as safe as possible. California is doing that. That's our plan anyways. What I worry about is other states or countries for that matter, will not phase things as well as they should.
Add Germany to the list of countries that are experiencing the start of a potential new wave after easing restrictions.
Not good.
I didn’t even think of that angle.
Well, if there’s one place that should see an ease in restrictions later than everywhere else, it’s care homes. Meat packing plants, too. This is what I’m talking about when I mean open in phases. You gotta attack this thing strategically and open things back up strategically and cautiously.
Well, if there’s one place that should see an ease in restrictions later than everywhere else, it’s care homes.
Half of NZ's deaths are from 1 rest home. 10 residents out of the rest home's 64 died from Covid-19. Of course all of them had underlying health issues but Corona Virus was the final nail in the coffin and none of them would have passed when they did if it wasn't for the virus.
Another rest home accounted for 3 deaths.
I think it was Korea that had an outbreak linked to bars and they shut them down indefinitely. It was a night club. They fortunately had people sign in with their names which helped them track people down.
places like South Korea have excellent contact tracing and use electronic tracking very well. In the west there’s too much concern about privacy issues and lack of trust. Not sure it’ll work effectively if not enough people are using tracking apps.
This is the major drawback of America’s emphasis on being an individual over being a member of society. In Asia, there’s much more of a “put the community first” mentality that helps them handle matters of this nature. In America, everyone puts themselves before the community, hence all the hullabaloo.
I should be a bit more clear: Some Americans are putting the community first, but too many are unable to do this/abopt this kind of thinking.
