Cake
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    • If 2016 taught us anything, it's that you just never know. I have little doubt that the Mueller investigation will reveal strong evidence of impeachable offenses, but what happens next is a political question. The Democratic leadership will try to oppose impeachment as long as they think they lack the votes in the Senate to convict. Given Trump's hard core support in red states, it's going to be very difficult to amass the twenty Republican senators needed. OTOH, the Dems may have to impeach to satisfy their own base, though other investigations in the House may provide sufficient red meat (pun intentional) to keep the base satisfied. Or they could wait a year, then open impeachment hearings and drag them out for a year without ever putting it to a vote. I think there's a better than 50% chance that Trump will start a war somewhere only to serve as a distraction, and that's the part that worries me most. If I had to bet, I'd say that he will complete his first term and be nominated for a second term but will lose decisively in 2020. But who knows? Every week seems like a month now and there are many weeks to go.

    • 55% - He doesn't make it to the end of his term. It's already very clear that he committed a felony in directing Cohen to violate campaign finance laws (and he has several other legal issues) and the Mueller report is not yet out. He will be impeached, and will resign prior to being convicted in the Senate as mainstream Republicans will have already started jumping ship.

      45% - He makes it through and elects not to run for another term. Southern District of New York comes after him, etc, as do Attorney's General in multiple states.

    • But you have to hand it to him, he has popularity at 87% among Republicans, the second-highest in history for support in your own party.

      Trump certainly has a core of blindly loyal supporters. But there's an additional factor at work here. The Republican Party is shrinking as traditional conservatives and moderates disavow racism, xenophobia, misogyny, fiscal irresponsibility and trade barriers. So little by little, all that's left are Trump supporters. It's no surprise then that 87% of Trump supporters are Trump supporters. But they still only comprise around 40% of the electorate.

    • In trying to remain positive, I often hope that having someone as obviously bankrupt of morals as Trump will reveal the holes in our political system and cause us to have to patch them up so that we can learn from it and create a better government (now that's really wishful thinking!). In showing the flaws, maybe it can lead to a better place for all of us. The Dems are already drafting anti-corruption laws (that will likely never get passed), but just the fact that there are people trying to repair the fractures gives me hope. What frightens me is the lack of concern for Climate Change. Hopefully the next generation can rally to the task.

    • WIRED tried to summarize how bad his legal troubles are. It wasn't easy. Can you imagine what all this is costing in terms of money and lost productivity that could be directed at road repair and teacher salaries?

      In terms of the environment, that's where I despair. I'm part of the generation that marched in protest to save Lake Eerie, we invented recycling and formed the EPA.

      But then came mass animal farming, plastics, and an incredible explosion in consumer waste that most people of every generation take for granted now. We somehow came to a place where it became normal to buy your apples at Costco in a plastic clamshell.

      I hope the environment isn't one of those things like infrastructure and teacher salaries that we all talk about but wouldn't do enough about even if Trump ends up falling to his legal woes.

    • The justice department will not indict a sitting president. If they did the legal argument as to whether they can or not might last longer than his term, anyway.

      I do not think he will resign. He may fear being indicted.

      I do not think (based upon what is known today) that he will be impeached. The house can get more political mileage out of Trump being Trump than going through an involved impeachment process when the odds are pretty good that the Senate won't convict. That could change upon future revelations of wrongdoing.

      That leaves him serving his full term.

    • Thanks for the Wired link. If you step back for a moment, isn't it remarkable that despite all the stuff that's known already, the majority of people who have posted in this thread think that Trump will continue in office? It's almost as if we have entered a parallel universe.

    • The justice department will not indict a sitting president. If they did the legal argument as to whether they can or not might last longer than his term, anyway.

      I agree that an indictment is unlikely, though it is only Justice Department policy, not written law that prevents it. And yes, legal challenges to any indictments would likely take so long to be resolved that they would become moot. OTOH, check out this WaPo article from a few days ago:

      It would be ironic if an attempt to suppress an indictment turned out to be the guarantee that a report becomes public. Three dimensional chess, anyone?