In a brief article in the Wall Street Journal the UK's Chief Scientific Advisor, Patrick Vallance, cautioned "that there is some evidence that the new variant may be associated with a higher degree of mortality"

The article states that the death rate among 60 year old people may rise from 10 per 100,000 to 13 or 14 per 100,000 citizens.

The readers were cautioned that this data is not quite certain yet, but a virus that is 30->70% more transmissable, and potentially, 30 or 40% more lethal, demands serious thought and action.

Perhaps this is some of the basis for the urgency for "100 million shots in arms in the next 100 days" in the USA.

The article does say that the virus seems to be responsive to the protective effects of the existing authorized vaccines.

U.K. Covid-19 Variant Could Be More Deadly, British Officials SayPrime Minister Boris Johnson said the variant-which has caused Covid-19 infections across the U.K. to spike and is spreading rapidly in the U.S.-could result in higher death rates. The conclusions are still highly uncertain.www.wsj.com

More people have now died in the UK in the past year than died during the 1918 influenza pandemic

With Hospitals Nearly Overwhelmed, Britain Faces Harder DaysAs a more contagious variant of the coronavirus tears through the country, and as people resist new restrictions, hospitals are struggling to cope with a surge in patients.www.nytimes.com

More than most lay people will ever want to know aobut Covid variants from the NYT

Inside the B.1.1.7 Coronavirus VariantWhat researchers have learned about the variant first discovered in Britain.www.nytimes.com

Wow, the Danes are not liking what they see with the new variant:

Denmark is sequencing all coronavirus samples and has an alarming view of the U.K. variantCases are exploding exponentially and lockdowns may not be enough.www.washingtonpost.com

Danish officials say that as a result, daily coronavirus cases there could quadruple by the beginning of April. Charts from the public health institute project that in the worst-case contagion scenarios, even with a strict lockdown in effect, cases would skyrocket.

On a positive note, at least for me, my wife and I get the vaccine on February 15.

Wow, I missed that article in my search. But if the UK variant is that much more infectious, AND 30-40% more lethal, 2021 may be worse than 2020. Yuck!!

My wife and I are scheduled to be poked on Jan 28th. Promises, promises!

We're keeping our fingers crossed - and we're having to drive about 50 miles to another county to claim our spot in line.

The Washington Post has an article about Patrick vallance's coments too that I missed earlier

Boris Johnson says British coronavirus variant may be more deadlyThe variant, already spreading around the world, was previously reported to be only more contagious.www.washingtonpost.com

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Opinion | If You're Offered a Vaccine, Take ItDeclining a Covid-19 shot because you think it should go to someone else won't help anyone.www.nytimes.com

Stay safe particularly until you've had your vaccines and they've had time to do their thing. I'm sure you have been but just had to say it. I wish it was just a matter of going down to the local supermarket and getting a jab.

Good to know and a makes me think I'd feel better about it if I took it.

Our city has pulled out all the stops and done a fantastic job of converting community centers to vaccine hubs but demand is so high and supplies so low you have to be over 75 and not have health insurance to get jabbed.

Santa Clara County launches COVID-19 vaccination site at Mountain View's community centerIn short order, the Mountain View Community Center has transformed from a recreational space to a hub for mass vaccinations, with a goal of providing the COVID-19 vaccine to 1,000 people each day.mv-voice.com

Over 75 I get, but "Not" have health insurance for something that is free, I don't exactly understand.

The vaccine is supposed to free, is it not, even if the administration is not free?

Nurses and syringes are not free, of course.

My guess is they’re thinking people with insurance will be taken care of by their providers but the city has to step in for the others.

In other news, the tech behind this vaccine looks promising for cancer (!) and HIV.

Research on COVID-19 vaccination technology could lead to HIV, cancer vaccinesNew vaccines for HIV and seasonal flu are currently under development using the mRNA technique, along with vaccine therapies that could provide new treatments for cancer and other ailments.www.newsweek.com

Bummer:

Dr. Fauci says new data shows Covid vaccines appear to be less effective against some new strainsEven if the vaccines are less effective against new variants, they'll still likely provide enough protection to make them worth getting, Dr. Anthony Fauci said.www.cnbc.com

We can’t get people vaccinated quick enough.

@Chris, how were you and Toni able to schedule your vaccines?

Yeah, this whole concept of mutations and new strains is kinda scary. Though when I heard Fauci interviewed, he didn’t seem to be too worried about the mutations getting in the way of vaccines doing their thing. Any thing I’m missing here?

The virus mutates at a fairly stable rate that is known to researchers by now - see my link about the B.1.1.7 Corona virus variant in the NYT above in this thread.

Most of these mutations are harmless, or inconsequential, many may even be disadvantageous to the virus. But some of the mutations can, and have, made the virus more spreadable, more contagious, and maybe - maybe - more dangereous or possibly, more lethal.

As Dr Fauci postulated, most of the known mutations will have no significant effect on the reliability, the effectiveness, of the existing vaccines. BUT, the possibility does exist that a major mutation in the spike protein might mean the the current approved vaccines are far less effective at protecting against the Covid 19 virus with that altered spike protein, and thus the vaccines might need to be altered, or updated.

My impression is It that the mRNA vaccines can be updated rather quickly, but I am not certain if they can get rapid FDA approval without going through all the previous vaccine trials already performed for the present vaccines, or whether they might be given emergency authorization.

The J&J single shot vaccine may be more broad in its protective effect since is may not be just a single protein component. That is my supposition, not a fact. That it only requires one shot is a significant advantage.

I have one comment about Presdient Biden's 100 million shots in arms in 100 days. A laudable goal, but 100 million shots only vaccinates 50 million people because present approved vaccines require 2 shots about 4 weeks apart.

The issue is that 50 million people are only about 1 out of every 7 people in the USA - nowhere near enough for herd immunity, which probable requires 80-90% of 340 million people. Even if we include the 25 million people known to be infected with Covid 19, 25 +50 million is still way too low to get the herd immunity we are needing for life to return to normal activity.

And every day the pandemic continues, is another day for the virus to mutate further, while we all try to keep up with its changing genetic make up.

May you live in interesting times, indeed!

'May you live in interesting times' - the meaning and origin of this phraseThe meaning and origin of the phrase 'May you live in interesting times'.www.phrases.org.uk

There’s evidence that the virus mutates much faster in certain situations. Sometimes they are seeing clumps of new mutations that happen together. They’re still investigation why this is so. It’s alarming.

Can you specify some of the situations that the mutation rate is higer in? Please?

Maybe a half billion new cases in a population without previous exposure to the agent, to advance the mutations available in a population??

Possibly more variations in individuals with immune deficiencies, maybe? Or multiple chronic infections??

Or in multiple mammalian species, too? Minks, ermines, cats, dogs, tigers, humans, etc? Maybe even more?

COVID-19 and Your HealthSymptoms, testing, what to do if sick, daily activities, and more.www.cdc.gov

This is just craziness.

A year of COVID-19: A sobering look at how California, U.S. compare to the rest of the worldU.S. has fared poorly with the virus on the global stage, but within the country, California, which took early action to control outbreaks but has suffered a recent infection wave, looks better tha...www.mercurynews.com

I guess thanksgiving and Christmas had big impacts.... The January bar is only up to the 20th.

Disturbing.

U.S. is in a 'race against time' with new coronavirus variants, scientists warnWithout a stable pipeline between manufacturing and distribution, the country remains vulnerable to emerging new strains, said one health professor.www.nbcnews.com

I keep thinking why if someone addicted can inject themselves, yet a regular vaccine is not possibly made available via self administered kits? Of course I am ignorant to medical process so this idea may be totally utopic, but what if it was possible? Why or why not? Could one reason be the financial loss some companies and entities distributing and delivering the shots would incur?

Edit. On second thought, the temperatures at which it needs to be transported and kept seem to be the biggest factor, perhaps. Maybe they can 'tweak' it so it's not spoiled at normal temperatures..

Also add in the real value of this to people at risk. If these vaccines were on the black market I'd think the price would be pretty dang high. Controlling the limited number of vaccine's helps to keep the distribution more ethical - at least within countries. Not so sure the wealthy countries are caring much about the less well off. With Pfizer and Moderna the only Western vaccine's that I've seen approved so far there's a real shortage. Not sure how long this will last.

Well, as far I can tell based on international news these two firms seem to be the main, if not the sole manufacturers who distribute in EU and US. How they plan and coordinate production geographically, and why, isn't transparent, at all.

I have already seen articles describing folks travelling to Saudi Arabia on the promise of a black market vaccination for a mere "$10,000 USD".

Somehow I am reluctant to let any black marketer sell me any injection on a "promise" of a result. Why counterfeit coins or currency, when drugs are so much easier to counterfeit?

The Moderna vaccine looks like 1/2 cc of water in a syringe - I know this, because that is what mine looked like last Thursday, which was provided by my local county health department, at no charge to me, and administered by a retired Registered Nurse volunteer. I have had no significant symptoms other than minor tenderness at the site of injection which lasted only about 48 hours.

In this context it is worth considering this article. Who really is responsible for creating safe, and very effective, vaccines in only 10 months? Despite Dr Fauci's estimate that it might take 18 months to four years or more.

There are also a Russian vaccine and a Chinese vaccine being used in several nations around the world. These vaccines have no received approval by the FDA, for use in the USA, yet; nor are they likely too, I hesitate to point out.

As for vaccinating the world, that is on the way too, beginning this spring, I suspect.

Opinion | Who Made the Vaccine Possible? Not WHOPharmaceutical companies and Trump's Operation Warp Speed deserve the vast bulk of the credit.www.wsj.com

I worked for Eli Lilly for two full summers while I was in school, so I spent one summer working out of doors in their veterinary medicine facillity and their viral labs, and one summer as an intern, in downtown Indianapolis, in their gastrointestinal biochemical research lab.

I never met a single Lilly employee who didn't display the highest regard for the importance and veracity of their companies products. These were line employees, not corporate officers, and they all took their tasks very seriously, and understood the importance of the purity of their products to the world at large.... They knew their family members, or their neighbors, might one day be treated with drugs they, themselves, helped manufacture, or create, and they carried that trust with them every day. The character and credibility of Eli Lilly is their real product, not a single drug.

It is currently fashionable by some folks to believe all corporations are vile actors, yet corporations are like individuals. They deserve to be evaluated on the basis of their character and value to society, not by being a "member of a tribe".

All I really know, is that successful vaccination is going to be required to really get this pandemic rolled up, and the sooner the better.

Johnsons and Johnson and AstraZenica vaccine will be approved within a couple weeks....

They were quick off the gate with large trials. Creating vaccines can be done in less than two weeks but it’s the testing that takes time. You probably know this.

The Pfizer can be used with a 1 mil syringe but those are in short supply around the world so many countries have been using larger ones. The testing was speeded up, not by taking short cuts but by fast tracking certain things not related to safety. No red tape so to speak. It’s a race between vaccinating the world and the virus mutation rates. Fingers crossed. Glad you got the vaccine. The second dose should create a bit stronger of a body response/soreness but that’s the point - to create an immune response.

Seems Johnson & Johnson has now a vaccine, which - if I get this right - while not as statistically effective as others, doesn't even require second shot, or very special handling..

Johnson & Johnson Vaccine Is 66% Effective In Preventing Moderate To Severe COVID-19The vaccine did better at preventing disease in the U.S. - 72% - and less well in South Africa - 57% efficacy. The efficacy seen in Latin America was 66%.www.npr.org

In an interview with a news agency Dr. Fauci explained on how this helps, by reducing the number of severe cases, and in their trials prevented any deaths, even though those vaccinated may in fact exhibit harder symptoms than those treated with the alternatives.

My takeaway is that any vaccine that would cause no harm, and is proven effective to a reasonable extent, is great news.