So Uber has the customers. All they have to do is lose the drivers and they've got this, right? But then, who owns the cars? Does Uber buy a bunch? Do owners buy autonomous cars and make them available to Uber? Are they smart enough to compete with Google and Tesla on a problem this hard to solve?
I'm leaning towards Tesla as a major player and here's one reason why:
Tesla hired some serious chip designers to build an autonomous driving computer from the chip up, and they were smart enough to design the car so they can swap out the older, 1000x slower computer, as a free upgrade.
They have 100 times the data from miles driven that Google has, and under all conditions from a huge variety of roads.
They can make the perfect autonomous taxi themselves. They can let current Tesla owners make some extra coin from their cars by adding them to the pool whenever they want. Their brand is golden.
My only doubt is how you get consumers, who are in the habit of calling up an Uber, to change their habits. So in market share some years in the future I pick Uber #1, Tesla #2, and Waymo (Google) somewhere down the list. You?