This thread began in January 2020 as the outbreak was starting. After over 1,000 posts and counting, we are now beginning volume 4 of the conversation.

You do not need to read the previous 1,000 posts to join in the conversation.

This is primarily a current events-focused conversation on COVID-19 with occassional medical discussions of the current treatment options, potential vaccines and the like.

If you don’t understand something discussed, feel free to ask—we’re a friendly and helpful bunch in navigating this serious topic.

Shout outs to frequent and sporadic participants in the hopes they join in this volume as well:

@Pathfinder  @JazliAziz  @IcyOtter  @Factotum  @lidja @Chris  @Eddieb (H/t for starting “volume 1”) @jpop @Shewmaker

I appreciate the shorter thread, and the quicker loading - but I submit that a new serial in the continuing sage should include the last 1/2 dozen posts from the previous numbrered thread. Otherwise they get pretty short shrift in the conversation...

When I stream serial entertainment content on my TV, I get a breif recapitulation of the previous shows so I am reminded where were are, and what was being talked about.

Anyone else agree with me, or am I all wet??

From Dr. Tom Frieden, for CDC director:

“Plain talk on testing. It’s not about the number of tests that get done, it’s about what gets done with them. If test results come back five days later and people don’t isolate in the interim, it hasn’t stopped spread of COVID19.”

As cases surge, lines for coronavirus tests sometimes stretch miles in the summer heatIn some cases, there aren't enough supplies. In others, overwhelmed workers have to rotate.www.washingtonpost.com

“For nearly six months the administration offered a series of predictions and pronouncements that never came to fruition. From Trump promising that "the problem goes away in April" and predicting "packed churches all over our country" on Easter Sunday to Vice President Mike Pence's claim that "by Memorial Day weekend we will have this coronavirus epidemic behind us" to Jared Kushner's pronouncement the country would be "really rocking again" by July because Americans were "on the other side of the medical aspect of this."

“This all followed the White House's initial message in January that the virus wasn't a threat at all. Asked if he was worried about a pandemic, Trump said at the time, ‘It's one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It's going to be just fine.’"

Now, the new message from the White House:

'We need to live with it': White House readies new message for the nation on coronavirusThe effort to craft a clearer response comes after months of Trump downplaying the health crisis and mixed signals from the administration.www.nbcnews.com

Further Reading

How do you Camp ethically during COVID-19?Utah is one of 14 states that hit all time highs for new cases over a seven day period, according to the Washington Post. If you live in a state or country where the infection rate is decreasing or ...cake.co

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From Volume 3:

H/t @Chris

This guy is projecting hundreds of thousands of deaths coming from Covid in America. Also, interesting explanation of Simpson’s Paradox.

Thread by @mbeckett: The trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are decreasing? The answer is simple. It's called Simpson's parado...Thread by @mbeckett: The trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are decreasing? The answer is simple. It's calpson's paradox and it's the result of incorrectly pooling data and arriving at a false conclusion. A thread 1/9 #...threadreaderapp.com

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this hospital says ventilators damage the patient and oxygenating the blood the patented Pathfinder way is the solution to saving patients.

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H/t @Eddieb

Florida tops 10,000 new cases in one day.

Another Day, Another Coronavirus Record In FloridaThe surge of coronavirus cases in Florida shows no signs of slowing down. The state hits another daily record, with more than 10,000 cases reported on Thursday.www.npr.org

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“Alongside the two-metre rule, the first minister also said that face masks will be mandatory in shops from 10 July - the date on which the country is expected to move its next lockdown phase.”

Coronavirus: Scotland to keep two-metre rule and make face coverings in shops mandatoryPeople will soon be able to travel further than the current five-mile restrictions and stay in self-contained accommodation.news.sky.com

Disturbing news from the UK:

“Analysis of data by two separate organisations showed that in April and May, more than double the number of people with a learning disability, some of whom may also be autistic, died compared with the same period last year.

“Providers registered with the Care Quality Commission reported 386 deaths between April 10 and May 15 2020, a 134 per cent jump on the 165 people in 2019.

“While the learning disability charity Mencap's analysis showed 1,029 deaths were recorded in April and May - double the expected 480. 

“Charity bosses called the rise 'deeply troubling' and a 'stark reminder' that the rights of disabled people were falling by the wayside.”

Deaths of people with learning disabilities and autism have DOUBLEDThe dramatic U-turn comes after it had previously reassured the deaths of people with learning disabilities and autism in England had been 'within expected range'.www.dailymail.co.uk

I hit a paywall, but the factoid someone shared with me was sobering:

“Evidence is growing that a mutated coronavirus strain, the main one circulating in the Houston area, is more contagious than the original virus in China.”

Evidence growing that Houston's main coronavirus strain is more contagious than originalEvidence is growing that a mutated coronavirus strain, the main one circulating in the Houston area, is more contagious than the original virus in China.www.houstonchronicle.com

It’ S.C. amazing that experts still are fiercely debating how much airborne transmission goes on and how:

239 Experts With One Big Claim: The Coronavirus Is AirborneThe W.H.O. has resisted mounting evidence that viral particles floating indoors are infectious, some scientists say. The agency maintains the research is still inconclusive.www.nytimes.com

Last time I chimed in, was to, not exactly brag, but point out how well we got the situation under control in Croatia. In June lockdown was relaxed, days of no new cases, borders were open (we're heavily dependent on tourism), we were well on our way to normalization.

Now, a month later, here we are, back to where we were in late March, early April. Still, it's not all bad, very few patients on respirators, very few dead. Requirements for masking are again in force, but businesses operate, no general lockdown, travel is unrestricted. We'll see what the future brings.

The arguing among medical researchers and WHO and governmental health agencies will be a source of distress for many years

Here is an article in the NYT showing just how hard it has been to convince health care agencies the dangers of asymptomatic transmission, which is now believed to be very significant - noted by a German physician in late January with Germany's first SARS-Cov 2 case which was infected by a totally asymptomatic Chinese woman travelling in Germany who did not have any symptoms until she returned to China several days later, and subsequently tested positive in China.

A very important thing to be aware of, and an excellent article displaying all the territorial fights in health care agencies

How the World Missed Covid-19's Silent SpreadSymptomless transmission makes the coronavirus far harder to fight. But health officials dismissed the risk for months, pushing misleading and contradictory claims in the face of mounting evidence.www.nytimes.com

Asymptomatic transmission means that temperature screening, or screening for illness symptoms is a waste of time and money, since well over half the cases are coming from infected carriers who have NO Symptoms.

A good reason for everyone to wear a mask when out in public!

Even Secret Service agents have been infected - almost certainly by asymptomatic carriers.

So when Croatia relaxed the lockdown, they decided that masks shouldn’t remain mandatory?

Were they afraid that masks would scare away the tourists?

@Eddieb Are masks still mandatory in New Zealand?

@Eddieb Are masks still mandatory in New Zealand?

No, they have never been mandatory though always highly recommended.

Life in New Zealand is completely back to normal unless you are considering entering or leaving the country.

While we have 22 active cases nationally all of these people recently entered the country and were diagnosed while in mandatory quarantine. We have had zero cases of community transmission for a month or so.

Dr. Peter Hotez this morning on CNN: "We're starting to see long-term disability from this illness ... In many ways we're gonna be producing a generation of disabled individuals."

Further Reading

'Operation Warp Speed' is fueling vaccine fears, two top experts worryThe government's "Operation Warp Speed" Covid-19 vaccine program, with its emphasis on quick production and testing of experimental coronavirus vaccines, is fueling fears already stirred up by vaccine skeptics, two experts said Friday.www.cnn.com

Even more reason to love our dogs - the partnership between humans and canines that has benefitted mankind for millenia, continues to develop new skills as dogs are found to identify the sweat from Covid 19 patients with a high degree of accuracy.

Dogs Trained to Sniff Out COVID-19 Score Near-Perfect in Diagnosis of Human Sweat SamplesIn a French study, detection dogs were trained to sniff out the smell of COVID-19 on the armpit sweat of infected patients-and they were near perfect.www.goodnewsnetwork.org

The dogs even detected sweats from patients with no symptoms who were thought to be negative, and who has tested AS NEGATIVE - but who, a few days after being identified by the dogs as positive, did indeed develop symptoms, and convert to testing positive. Truly remarkable

One MIGHT suggest the canine noses were better than the nasaL screenings - no, we won't go there - yet....

Can dogs sniff out Covid-19? Scientists think soResearch is in the early stages, but dogs seem to be able to detect the novel coronavirus.www.inverse.com

Yikes, I'm sorry to hear that. I guess we have gotten better at catching it early when it's more treatable and improving treatment for the infected. We're seeing mortality dropping in the U.S. too as we figure out better treatment.

I'm very surprised that this is happening in the summer heat. It was thought to be like the flu, muted in the summer and coming back in the fall. And yet here's the shape of the curve in one of our hottest states, Florida:

UPDATED: More than 7,000 Children in Florida Have Tested Positive for COVID-19The CDC's new guidelines exclude age as a factor for COVID-19 contagion as 7,000 kids have tested positive in Florida, according to the Dept. of Health.couriernewsroom.com

Kids are not immune

“The state’s health records also show that in June two teenagers who had been hospitalized, a 17-year-old boy in Pasco County and a 16-year-old girl in Lee County, later died from coronavirus related complications.”

Schools start in Florida in mid-August.

Wonder what it will look like?

“The Florida Department of Education has issued an order requiring that all schools must reopen for in-person classes this fall.

“According to the plan released Monday evening, all school boards and charter school governing boards must open brick and mortar schools in August at least five days per week for all students, subject to the advice and orders of the Florida Department of Health.”

Further Reading

The plan was released today (July 6th)

Florida education commissioner mandates all schools must reopen campuses this fallThe Florida Department of Education on Monday said all schools must provide families the option to have their students attend in-person classes five days a week.www.news4jax.com

Spain's new Covid-19 study is bad news for herd immunity advocates - CNN VideoSpain's large-scale study on the coronavirus indicates just 5% of its population has developed antibodies, strengthening evidence that a so-called herd immunity to Covid-19 is "unachievable," the medical journal the Lancet reported.www.cnn.com

Figured I would add this in here: A new study out of Spain indicates herd immunity isn’t likely to be achieved without a vaccine. Kinda scary.

It looks like we’re going to be masking for a long time:

'We'll be living with masks for years': COVID-19 through the eyes of a pandemic expertSince the summer of 2019, I've been speaking with one of the world's leading pandemic experts about what a global outbreak could look like. Now, as the world enters a grim new phase, he says we're in a whole new ball game.www.cnet.com

His perspective is a vaccine won’t be in mass deployment until 2022 and it will likely require a double dose.

People are no longer happy with Florida’s governor:

Net approval for governor’s handling of COVID-19

Whitmer (MI) +18
Cooper (NC) +10
Evers (WI) +10
Wolf (PA) +6
DeSantis (FL) -6
Ducey (AZ) -26

“The shift is driven by the Sunbelt states currently experiencing the highest cases - 53% of voters in the Sunbelt states say things are reopening too quickly (23% at the right pace, 24% not quickly enough). By comparison, 30% of those in the Rust Belt say things are opening too quickly (34% at the right pace, 36% not quickly enough). Even 47% of voters in households that lost wages or jobs due to COVID-19 nationally now say that things are reopening too quickly.

Further Reading

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In a *shocking* turn of events, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus.

Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus - The GuardianFar-right president, who has repeatedly trivialized pandemic, announces: 'It came back positive'apple.news

I was never convinced that "natural" herd immunity would be the solution. The concept itself implies that the entire herd must gain immunity, and that means everyone (or almost everyone) must get sick in order for the community to be immune (though getting immunity after everyone is sick kinda defeats the purpose). No way that can ever be possible without mass casualties. The only way herd immunity was ever a viable option would be with a vaccine.

This is why I invested in a good quality face mask. Even bought a few for my family.

Some good news from Malaysia! We just reported zero local transmissions for the second time since the second wave started weaning off.

And the largest cluster in the country, which kickstarted the second wave back in Feb-Mar has finally been declared over.

Unfortunately though, the planet as a whole doesn't seem to be fairing much better.

I would be interested in what everyone thinks about monoclonal antibodies. The News makes them seem promising.

Even without a Covid-19 vaccine, there's reason for hopeWilliam Haseltine writes that even if a Covid-19 vaccine isn't ready in the near future, there is reason for hope that a medical solution -- in the form of an effective treatment for newly infected patients -- will soon be at hand.www.cnn.com

I read about a guy with severe memory issues due to related complications from COVID-19. It was not an outlier. We may indeed have a generation of COVID disabled.

“Scientists warn of a potential wave of coronavirus-related brain damage as new evidence suggests COVID-19 can lead to severe neurological complications, including inflammation, psychosis and delirium.”

Scientists warn of potential wave of COVID-linked brain damage"Given that the disease has only been around for a matter of months, we might not yet know what long-term damage COVID-19 can cause," one researchers said.www.nbcnews.com