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    • Oh my God those were great. I read Larry Brilliant’s interview to my wife and we debated as we went. I love WIRED. 💪👏

    • HOLY $#!^

      Officials in Florida's Miami-Dade County reported a staggering 33.5% Covid-19 positivity rate on Thursday November 9th, according to data released by Mayor Carlos Gimenez's office. 

      The positivity rate -- that is, the percentage of people who test positive for the virus of those overall who have been tested -- is tracked daily by the county. 

      Gimenez's office has said the goal is to not exceed a positivity rate of 10%. The county has exceeded the 18% mark for the past 14 days. The current 14-day average is 24%, the data shows.

      Over the past 13 days, hospitalizations in Miami-Dade County have gone up by 76%, the number of ICU beds being used has increased by 86% and the use of ventilators has soared by 124%, according to the latest data from the county government.

    • In your opinion, do you think we have enough data yet to know whether this is a real trend or an outlier that becomes a <1/10 of 1% of cases when we go from 11 million cases worldwide today to 50(?) million a year from now.

      You could die from getting your tonsils out, but the risk of that happening is so insignificant that parents don’t give it a second thought when having that procedure performed on their child.

      I know that news coverage can often be focused on “what bleeds, leads,” and it’s hard not to become convinced that no one is wearing masks in the US, for example, if you only saw the grocery store videos on social media.


    • I think it is possible that we will see late term issues with a small percentage of Covid 19 patients - NOW - I have very limited facts to back up this statement, but I do have a few. As to what percentage of patients may experience this? I have no idea really, hopefully pretty small, or we would have heard more about it before now. But it may take a number of years to really know....

      1 - we have been hearing these sort of concerns in numerous areas of medicine, neurology, and psychiatry from several countries already. And we are seeing some unexpected issues even in people with very minimal or non-obvious illnesses

      2 - as I mentioned in a post here earlier, there is some data from a century ago about mental health issues following the 1918 pandemic. Laura Spinney stated in "Pale Rider: The Spanish Flu on 1918 and How It Changed the World" that in the 6 years after 1918 there was a 7 fold increase in psychiatric hospital admissions for a variety of diagnoses, when compared with pre-1918 admission rates - page 219 of her book

      3 - In the same book, it is noted that males born in 1918, who were presenting for the draft in the USA in WWII, were almost 2mm shorter than males born in the years before or after that year - suggesting that infants in the womb displayed measureable changes in height almost 22 years later

      So is it possible, even probable, that there may be long term consequences of this pandemic that we have not fully become aware just yet?? Almost certainly in my very limited understanding of what it occurring - especially since Covid 19 is a micro-vasculitis type of illness, not just a respiratory illness. It may even be affecting male testicles, since the virus is apparently found in some semen samples. Again, no one really knows what this means at this point. The urologists may have more to offer about this as time passes.

      But as Laura Spinney points out in her book, we are still learning new points about the 1918 pandemic over a century later.... Hopefully it won't take us as long this time, but just consider how limited we know about how this illness is acting in most third world countries - do you really think this illness is not passing through the shanty towns in South Africa, or the smaller towns in Siberia, or the favellas in Brazil?? Will the yonomami and many other indigineous people even survive?

      I seem to recall that there is some expectation that a vaccine MAY begin to be available before years end - which if true, is truly amazing, and hopeful!! Not for you and I probably, but for more important people, like political leaders and legislators, and then maybe health care personnel, and at risk people.

      There is little doubt that therapy is getting significantly better in the modern portions of the world - but that's only half of the world population? Or less? Google says about 15% of the worlds population live in developed countries, which means 85% are in developing countries....

      How many of us thought this way back in January??

    • Health care workers masks have always been white or maybe a pale blue so you can easily see if they have been soiled - they were never a fashion statement, or a political statement......

      Black masks are for children playing cowboys or cops and robbers...... Did I say that, really?

    • From Sherry Pagoto, UConn Professor:

      College students return to campus in a few weeks. We wanted to know their thoughts about quarantine, symptom tracking, contact tracing, and mask wearing on campus, so my grad student and I did focus groups to find out.

      Here’s what students told us.

      First, we asked them about the required 14 day quarantine before the semester starts. Every student we asked said that this is not realistic and will likely fail.

      They pointed out that students are eager to see each other and will find a way to do so when they arrive on campus. They said that students who live 1-2 hours away will try to find a way to go home. They said off campus students will likely find their way on campus.

      They were concerned about boredom. One suggested that instead of bringing students back 2 weeks early, the first 2 weeks of the semester should be quarantine (online classes only) because then at least students would have something to do. (Not a bad idea.)

      Students expressed concerns about how a pre-semester quarantine would be enforced. They also said they wanted to hear that the university understands how hard this is on them.

      They want… empathy.

      Not punishment.

      We asked: what would make this quarantine tolerable?

      They were not enthusiastic generally about online games/activities; instead they said they want outdoor socially-distanced activities such as movies, concerts, exercise classes.

      Their belief that quarantine won’t be effective seemed to really affect their motivation to want to stick to it. This will be a real problem. If people believe it is doomed from the start, it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

      Students also said they want specific guidelines about what it means to quarantine. For example, a “dos” and “don’ts” list. A theme throughout the focus groups was that students want to be educated about why all these steps are important.

      Next we asked about symptom tracking via mobile app… Students were concerned about the consequences of reporting symptoms and wanted to be clear on what the consequences will be. They fear automatic quarantine if they report ANY symptom and this is a big deterrent.

      Students said unless their symptoms were severe and unusual they might not report them. Their sense was that most students don’t think they will get COVID19 and then may brush off symptom tracking.

      asked: How to maximize participation in symptom tracking? Generally they were very enthusiastic about rewards and against punishment. For ex, receiving prizes, food, university swag, or extra credit for symptom tracking “streaks.”

      They also suggested that students not doing symptom tracking be contacted by the student health center who could then discuss the importance of symptom checks and help problem solve any barriers.

      They also wanted guidance on whether to report symptoms they experience regularly (e.g., frequent headaches). They were uncertain re how to assess which symptoms should be reported. They want guidance to be personalized to their pre-existing conditions.

      Symptom tracking apps should include educational content to help students navigate these issues. An app for a gen pop may not meet student needs or be designed with what students have at stake when they report symptoms (e.g., missing social events, exams) in mind.

      Onto contact tracing… Students said an obstacle to sharing contacts is SHAME. They seemed scared people could figure out they got infected and shame them especially if they got infected while doing something risky.

      Infection really needs to be de-stigmatized on campus.

      The other big fear related to getting infected was getting in trouble---many are very fearful testing positive will get you kicked off campus.

      Students were also concerned about sharing contacts from bars if they were at a bar and underage. Students generally are worried that in sharing contacts it might be revealed they were somewhere they shouldn’t have been and this could get them into trouble.

      Now let’s discuss masks. Students seemed optimistic that mask wearing wouldn’t be a major problem indoors for classes and university-related activities. They requested that masks be made widely available so that if people show up without one, they could get one easily.

      However, students were pessimistic about mask wearing during social events. They said it will depend on the social norms of the group. Many said students should hold each other accountable but weren't sure how to do this.

      Students expressed concerns that students coming from states that have been lax about masks and social distancing might not have good habits and their behavior may set the tone for others.

      Next, we asked students about messaging that would motivate them to be safe. They said a message that emphasizes the goal of returning to normal by spring. They understand fall will be weird but they hope spring is back to normal. THIS is the goal that will rally them.

      Finally, we asked what the threshold should be for closing campus down. Almost all students said it should be based on several weeks of increasing cases on campus and should not wait until someone dies. One student said under no circumstances should the campus close.

      Sherry Pagoto

    • I think the idea was that the first wave was over and we're gonna sail through the summer and then get ready for the 2nd wave in the autumn. Also, not for nothing, we had a national elections at the beginning of July, and the ruling party was planning on capitalizing on the successful fight against the virus. They scored a victory, BTW.

      From this Monday, we're back to masking in all enclosed public spaces.

    • But that wasn't the end of the story. The country is now seeing a fiftyfold increase in new cases and is starting to shut down pubs, pools and gyms once again. The government is now wondering whether Israel reopened too soon.

      Tagging @mbravo

    • Thanks for the tag. I don't really have anything to add here - while the economy naturally wants to reopen, general happy-go-lucky attitude and some decidedly medieval approaches within orthodox communities have indeed resulted in an unpleasant 2nd wave of infections. I am personally lucky to have a job and a lifestyle that are more suited to the semi-lockdown state of things, but if say daycares close up again, even I will feel the burn (active 3 year-old and working from home (in fairly large but not too large an apartment) is not a very efficient combination).

    • Based on the major news coverage, you’d think that the US is the only country that’s turned its back on science, but other countries are seeing huge spikes because of the same beliefs:

      “The protesters believe the guidelines have a different aim, with the Facebook group for the event describing the measures as ‘laws by deceiving politicians that will mean the beginning of an era where we are all experimented on and cloned by a Romanian version of the Nazi Josef Mengele.’”

    • Private enterprise to the rescue ??

      Krogers, Wal Mart and Sam's Club, and Menard's are all requiring customers to wears masks to enter their stores - and their employees are all masked as well.

      Gradually, one way or the other, the US is making some progress.

      Wait, I found even more - Apple, Starbucks, BestBuy, Costco from Yahoo Finance news

      Finally, some Americans with some common sense. Hurrah!!

    • I hope things improve for your country soon. The repeated lockdowns are going to have a negative toll on us all, even if we don’t have an active three year old at home, 😉

    • Finally, some Americans with some common sense. Hurrah!!

      It’s so hard for the average American to know what to believe. The Alabama governor just issued a mask order. The Georgia governor overrode all local mask orders.

      One doctor emerges as the most trusted source of info in the world, Fauci, but his colleague in the White House wrote an op-Ed in USA Today saying Fauci has been wrong about everything.

      Sign in London:

    • Just think - as a nation we control 11 aircraft carrier battle groups, and countless nuclear weapons and we can't manage a viral illness......... Does this alarm anyone?

      Love the sign @Chris

      The governor of Georgia may find his comeuppance at the ballot box yet.

      I do note the rising daily infection rates in my local state, Indiana, is not accompanied by a rising death rates....yet. Maybe in another 3-4 weeks, we will see the rising death rates too.

      Just when we thought it couldn't get worse....

    • I think that an anti microbiol mask that’s 99% effective could be a “carrot” to encourage greater usage.

      At the same time, I think you need a “stick” to beat down irresponsible governors like Kemp of Georgia.

      Your senior Senator from California has proposed offering up such a beat down:

      “Feinstein announced her intention to introduce the amendment and stated that it was time for Congress to step in and force states to implement such mandates to stop the virus from spreading.

      "’Wearing masks in public should be mandatory. Period. [Senate Majority] Leader [Mitch] McConnell [R-Ky.] said the Senate will take up the next coronavirus economic relief bill later this month. At that time, I intend to offer an amendment to prohibit sending funds to states that haven't adopted a statewide mask requirement,’ said Feinstein, a member of the Senate Subcommittee on Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration.”

      This is an extraordinary bit of gamemanship. Could Mitt Romney end up supporting this? (tagging @slamdunk406)