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    • Yeah. Remember all those search engines in the early days of the internet? Eventually, Google emerged as the monopoly of that maker. I wonder if the same trend will emerge in auto. The first company to transportation as a service market with self-driving cars will get so far ahead due to the competitive edge of not having to employ drivers that it will be so hard for other companies to play catch up. Uber is valued at 120B. By market cap, they're bigger than Ford, GM, and Honda, and very quickly catching up with Toyota. I can easily imagine a world in which Uber exclusively owns and operates most of the vehicles of the world.

    • Great find, cvdavis. Whenever I think of predicting the demise of oil companies, I think of that time when I and my fellow earth scientists were so dead wrong about something we were convinced of.

      In the early 80s when I was a young geophysicist, it was clear as can be that we would run out of oil by the year 2000. We were discovering new fields with decreased frequency. All the easy oil had been found. The rise of India and China. Graphs, charts, math. You couldn't miss the obvious trend and the oil companies knew it so Exxon expanded into office products and started selling typewriters and copy machines. All oil companies expanded into petrochemicals like plastics, and they invested enormous amounts into solar, geothermal and wind in the 70s and 80s, none of which paid off because when Opec opened the taps, alternative energy companies collapsed.

      Then came the discoveries like offshore Brazil that we didn't see coming. Then more and more. Horizontal drilling. Fracking. What? The data had been so clear...

      And now we're talking glut in 2023.

      One thing I don't agree with is big vehicle sales is a result of no electric competition. For 40 years, what has driven big versus small vehicle sales is the price of gas. If there's a glut and cheap gas, we get the vans, trucks, motor homes, and SUVs.

    • You know, I've tried to get myself excited about electric motorcycles and I haven't been able to. They're not pretty. They don't sound cool. They have no retro hipster Steve McQueen look.

      The thing about cars is they've all come to look alike because with cars it's about safety, quiet ride, fuel economy — and those things make most cars look the same, a bunch of aero plastic bubbles. At first glance, does this look like a Toyota?

      Motorcycles are not like that. We love the look & sound. Why else would you buy a Triumph or Harley? The engines are beautiful. Electric boats and cars, I get for sure. I'm even obsessed with electric-boosted mountain bikes, I totally get why I lust after them.

      But which electric motorcycles look and sound like this?

    • Yes that's what I had read too. That said, I'm sure there are car companies that will fail to make a successful transition to the new system. Big changes will be happening in the next ten years.

    • As someone who does a lot of dirt biking and adventure riding on serious off road trails, I - like you - need a bike that has a longer range than the current crop of electric bikes such as the Zero. That said, I think we have a bias because of our own needs. Certainly most people who ride motorcycles are using them in the city and don't require a long range. The longer the range, the greater the number of potential buyers. Battery energy density will have to improve for motorcycles but for cars they're already good enough for a large chunk of the population. If not then there's hybrids or good old ICE vehicles.

    • Electric motorcycle technology certainly is not where electric car technology is but that's not really the point of the video. I agree with your take however.

    • There is certainly a big reward for those who arrive first but there's plenty of room for other companies to also build large fleets of cars. It's almost inconceivable that only one company will dominate the whole world. For one thing some countries simply wouldn't allow it. Can you imagine China allowing the market to be 95% foreign cars? Not a chance.

    • Yes I agree that large vehicle sales go up or down depending on gas prices but there's more to it now. I myself have thought for a couple years now that I'll just keep my current vehicle going until self driving electrics come out.

      Of course nothing involving technology is inevitable and no one can predict the future with absolute certainty. That being said I think there's ample evidence of car manufactures scuttling their tech research into ICE and redirecting it into electric vehicles. That alone says a lot. The GM factory shut downs and layoffs are part of their long term plans to refocus on electric vehicles. This also a harbinger of what's to come. If something better comes along I'd be all for that too. Progress is what I see happening.

    • I'll address aesthetics, maintenance and sound in my comments that follow.

      Aesthetics certainly plays a roll with motorcycle sales but some people like me are obsessed with the performance side of things. If someone on an electric motorcycle is kicking my butt because their bike is better - then I want one. We haven't gotten to that stage just yet but it'll come. There are a lot of reasons why electric motorcycles should surpass ICE motorcycles in performance due to extra space available on the motorcycle. You have more freedom for changing the shock angle for example. Yes the batteries need to get better but it will happen.

      We have so many positive experiences with motorcycles that have ICE engines that we are somewhat attached to them. I can tell you after doing all my own mechanical work that I'd much rather ride a motorcycle than work on it. Electric motorcycles have hardly any maintenance compared to ICE ones and that alone in my mind will be worth the price of admission when the range and performance are equal.

      The sound of a dirt bike is certainly attractive but I have to say that I purchased a certain electric assist mountain bike because it had a quieter motor than the others. There's something to be said for a quieter experience. I also want a silent bike so I can have access to more riding areas. Access issues are huge among dirt bikers and the electric bikes are sure to be a game changer in this regard. Imagine having a motocross track right in your yard in or near the city? We actually have a motocross track in our city but that's an extremely rare thing. It won't be rare in the future and that's a very exciting prospect for me and a lot of fellow dirt bikers.

    • Yes, and I don't imagine Japan, Korea or Germany will just quietly fade away either. I think we have to distinguish between car manufacturers and fleet owner/operators. It's possible that some companies will be both, though that might raise anti-trust alarms in some countries (but not in others). While we don't know what the end result will be, I agree that there's not much of a chance of a first mover locking out the competition. There are already too many well-financed players for that to occur.