Great find, cvdavis. Whenever I think of predicting the demise of oil companies, I think of that time when I and my fellow earth scientists were so dead wrong about something we were convinced of.
In the early 80s when I was a young geophysicist, it was clear as can be that we would run out of oil by the year 2000. We were discovering new fields with decreased frequency. All the easy oil had been found. The rise of India and China. Graphs, charts, math. You couldn't miss the obvious trend and the oil companies knew it so Exxon expanded into office products and started selling typewriters and copy machines. All oil companies expanded into petrochemicals like plastics, and they invested enormous amounts into solar, geothermal and wind in the 70s and 80s, none of which paid off because when Opec opened the taps, alternative energy companies collapsed.
Then came the discoveries like offshore Brazil that we didn't see coming. Then more and more. Horizontal drilling. Fracking. What? The data had been so clear...
And now we're talking glut in 2023.
One thing I don't agree with is big vehicle sales is a result of no electric competition. For 40 years, what has driven big versus small vehicle sales is the price of gas. If there's a glut and cheap gas, we get the vans, trucks, motor homes, and SUVs.