I'm trying to make sense of the fire hose of information we're all currently subjected to, and I thought I might share with you.
First, there's a dashboard of publicly available information by the German Robert-Koch-Institut (RKI) here:
That dashboard has a chart for "daily new cases" in the lower right corner, but the numbers there seem to fluctuate wildly based on the fact that some reports from local authorities won't go through on weekends. This means that the number of cases is underreported on the weekend, and in consequence overreported on Mondays and perhaps Tuesdays.
To make sense of this, I copied the number of new cases into a spreadsheet and plotted that data. X-axis is the number of days since last report of zero new cases on February 25, Y-axis is the number of new cases for that day. The blue line matches the original chart, and the light blue exponential trendline shows a very mediocre fit, as would be expected.
I then averaged the number of new cases over the last seven days, which should help to get rid of most artifacts based on weekend misreporting. This is the red line - and in fact, the light red trendline is an eerily close match.
The fact that the end of the red line drops well below the trendline seems promising at first, especially with the 2-person limit in public space enacted the day before - but we need to keep in mind that this is a 7-day average with data lagging behind another day or two since last week, because the RKI switched the way it's getting data on March 16. If this is a real effect and not just a random outlier, this decrease in daily new cases must be based on something that happened perhaps some days ago, perhaps between March 16 and March 20.
Wikipedia has a detailed timeline of what's going on in Germany, I will have to check this more thoroughly before I have a guess: