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    • Absolutely, my wife and I will be vaccinated as soon as it is available to mere citizens.

      I think it ought to be offered at work, in the mall, at drug stores, where ever people are.

      But what we will probably see happen is herding folks up into long lines like they were waiting for diagnostic tests, or for free beer....

      By the time the vaccine is really available to the general public - February at the earliest, the catastrophes at our local community hospitals will have convinced a great many people to get the vaccine, even if they feel punk, and maybe a little febrile for a day afterward.

      Some people in the USA will still refuse to take the vaccine, sadly.

      Late December and January are going to be very dark days first, I think. We may see those predictions of 400,000+ deaths validated, yet.

    • Absolutely!

      As @Pathfinder said, I suspect there will be long lines. And while I know setting up a 2-shot vaccine in a specified timeframe is technically possible I am concerned about getting the 2nd shot in the desired time.

    • I would definitely get the vaccine IF the manufacturer did not do what AstraZeneca did. I don't know if Moderna or Pfizer did or did not.

      I will not take the AstraZeneca vaccine.

      There are many people who are not anti-vaxxers who view this subject in the same way. If we want 75%-80% vaccination then the AstraZeneca approach is a big fail.

    • We may see those predictions of 400,000 deaths validated, yet.

      I remember when Fauci casually let slip that we could be looking at 100,000+ deaths in America and I thought WHAT?! Did he just misspeak?

      And yesterday I got another shock:

      I just can't believe it. New Zealand, can we borrow your Prime Minister for three months?

    • We lost 416,800 ( military) -> 418,500 ( civilian + military ) casualties in WWII..... which is lower than the 422,000 prediction from the CDC director, Dr Robert Redfield for the current pandemic's first year.

      Of course the deaths in WWII occurred, spread out, over a period of 4 or 5 years or so.....

      Those predictions are part of the reason I think most folks will choose to get vaccinated......

      I have a couple family members who say they will not however. We shall see.....

      422,000 deaths in a population of roughly 330 million - is one death for every ~ 782 individuals, or 1/782 or 0.001278% of the nation.

      It is a good thing that this pandemic is not really a highly dangerous disease, isn't it??

      Otherwise, we might be looking at terrible statistics.......

    • Late December and January are going to be very dark days first, I think. We may see those predictions of 400,000 deaths validated, yet.

      You're at 275,000 now. If you averaged 1k a day from now till the end of February that's 86,000 more deaths till then.

      EDIT: This page says as of December 1 2020 the US has averaged 952 deaths per day since the first case was confirmed on January 20th 2020.

      Hmm, the preview says 935 per day but the page text says 952.

    • Think exponential death rate growth, not linear.....

      Unfortunately, the models are fully expecting exponential increases in the death rate.

      Your link says the deaths from Covid since last January have averaged about 935 per day - but that average includes a beginning at 0 deaths per day.

      Currently almost 3000 folks a day ( 2885 per NY Times Dec 2 ) are reported as dying due to Covid 19. Whether that number counts ALL of the deaths from Covid 19 is also questionable in many many ways.

      All those new cases from Thanksgiving will create 2-4X more cases for Christmas, and still 2-4X more for the New Year -> Exponential growth right through February and March, unless the vaccination can begin to catch up with the infection rate in the general population, or everyone stays home and wears mask, washes hands, yada yada yada...... I am not expecting everyone to radically change their behaviour in the next couple weeks. The die was already cast in late October and early November. Folks are still trying to figure out how to a have a college football season......let alone a college basketball season in nice warm comfy gyms with screaming cheering fans....

      I hope you're right that only 86,000 more deaths remain, but Dr Redfield didn't seem to think things would proceed on a linear basis either..

      I fervently hope that the number of previously infected people is such that some degree of herd immunity in the general population may help blunt the exponential spread of this illness, but I have very great doubt that this is likely to taper off yet...

      I wish that it were so!!

      I am sorry to sound so negative, I am really trying to find the bright spots to be thankful for.

      @Eddieb I hope you and your family are all healthy, hale and hearty for the coming Holidays, all around the globe.

    • I hope you're right that only 86,000 more deaths remain, but Dr Redfield didn't seem to think things would proceed on a linear basis either..

      I was more referring to the US being close-ish to that 400,000 number already based on what I originally estimated as an average death rate from looking at the graph on the John Hopkins site before I looked up any actual numbers, without accounting for any of the potential other possibilities.

      The 2885 figure quoted by the NYT seems to be a new 1 day record high and not the norm, but yes the daily average will continue go up due to those 0 and low death rate days at the beginning as that 952 daily average is from the first diagnosis, not the first death, and the US is still tracking upwards, not downwards.

      This page on the CDC website indicates that in the last 7 days (from time of writing) there has been 11,251 deaths in the US, which makes an average of 1607 per day. If we extrapolate that number for the 84 days till the end of February that makes 138,000 deaths, so over the 400,00k mark in total.


      With winter, colds, and the Flu making people more susceptible on top of all the denier's out there I'm seriously worried for you all.
      I joined Parler a few days ago to see what people were saying about the election and stumbled onto Covid topics, it's scary over there! There's well over 100,000 posts about Covid being a hoax.

      I'm lucky to be in New Zealand so life is completely normal here apart from doing QR Code contact tracing check-in's where ever you go just in case. These check-ins are stored locally on your device and only transmitted to a central server if and when you allow that from your device, i.e. after you've been diagnosed as positive, and want to assist in tracing others who may also have been infected.

      From New Zealand it is like having a front row seat to watching an empire burn and you can't look away because it's morbidly fascinating. The US seems to have stumbled onto the perfect storm of things to create division in the populace.

    • I know, and even the Supreme Court is making rulings striking down restrictions on religious gatherings. I read their ruling about New York and thought what the Hell? 9 justices who know nothing about infectious disease or science and who live an insulated life are making scientific pronouncements that you can restrict the size of the gathering, but they say the size some state health experts are mandating is too restrictive, just make the number somewhat bigger. Just apply it to religions, but it's okay to ban bars from any size crowd.

      If you were to rank who should be making those decisions, I would have put those 9 below public health officials, doctors, nurses, scientists, politicians with science backgrounds, etc. But somehow those 9 can overrule hundreds of thousands of experts who are on the front lines.

      I listened to Mitt Romney on PBS today and he made a ton of sense, was deferring to experts, etc. I guess that's why he gets ignored in America.

    • I have 118 million in front of me too, or about 46,600 in my local county, so wish me good luck.

      I saw somewhere on the web that it should be obvious that you can run into an empty liquor store and be back out with a bottle in under 10 minutes, and no singing is required.

      Whereas going to church does require you to sit closely with a large group of people for 1.5-2 hours with lots of singing, praising, and maybe even hugging involved.

      But currently the Supreme Court says you can go to church, but that bars and liquor stores may be closed.

      Even the Soviet Union realized closing liquor stores means the end of the nation.
      We tried Prohibition once here in the US. It didn’t work out well then.

    • Even though the army materiel command is expediting the movement of the vaccines, I still think there's a way for the works to get gummed up, and that current, optimistic predictions will fade a bit as we turn the corner into 2021:

    • So I entered my age in three different countys in 3 different states; the one where I reside, and the county of residence of my two sons. In all three instances the result was 118.5 million ahead of me, but the county returns differed, apparently based on population of each. At my age I was hoping to be a bit closer to the head of the line, but am happy to be in no other risk groups apart from age and will continue to mask and distance and wait more or less patiently.

    • Yes, I had the exact same feeling Denise - everyone seems to have 118.5 million folks in front of them, no matter their obvious age or sex differences. My wife came up with the same results.

      The questionaire was not terribly precise in their definition of what specific type of obesity.

      I would be interested in their estimate of the minimum weight of a 6 foot tall adult male who is "obese" - if it is over 200 pounds I would fit that criteria, but I know of an awful lot of 190 pound males who clearly are not morbidly obese.

      Can I just move up in line by claiming to be obese and have mild hypertension then?? 👀 Put a couple bricks in my pockets before getting on the scale?

      I get a kick out of my physician's office's compulsion to weigh every patient, each and every time,- with their heavy jeans, sweater, boots on, hat on, and even with a cold weather coat on, and then record that number as if it means something about one's health. Weights were originally done in underwear only, to minimize variance due to clothing. But that takes too much time these days, apparently.

      But putting a number, any number, in a box in the computer chart is "vitally" important. Don't get me started. 😧

      So we just have to survive another three months or six, to grab the bell as we go by.

    • So we just have to survive another three months or six

      When Toni was walking the dog, she commented that one of our neighbors was having a Thanksgiving dinner indoors with family and it looked like a lot of people at the table, just looking through their big window. Odd.

      Turns out there were 14 and all but one got tested before arriving for the dinner. He said he didn't believe in Covid so he didn't get the test.

      So far, 11 of them have come down with it and two are in the ICU. Our neighbor who hosted the dinner is probably in her 70s (?) and I think she's been hospitalized.

      A few miles away, some very dear friends of ours had dinner with 13 family members and so far 11 of them have come down with Covid.

    • Wow, what horribible stories. I am so sorry, @Chris

      I just cannot conceive how folks would take those kinds of risks with their families.

      Maybe it is because I have a lot a friends and family members who are either physicians or nurses or medical techs, and I know that many of then are being strained to very near their breaking points, and the efforts they make to shield their families from this pandemic.

      To have invited family members to a dinner where they became seriously ill, would not be something I would ever wish to endure.

      The agony those familes will live with is heart rending. Not somewhere I would ever go voluntarily.

      And yet, my brother ( a physician ) sees patients every day who are openly angry at having to even wear a mask in a physician's office. Some folks really do believe this is all a hoax, for some bizarre reason.

    • Malaysia will start vaccinations next year but only a portion of the population will get it first. The spread of the virus is contained to several clusters while we are under the current Conditional Movement Control Order, so even if a small portion of the population is immunised it should help.