This past weekend marked 100 days until the 2020 U.S. presidential election. November feels like a ways off, but under 100 days feels like it’s right around the corner. It’s funny how describing things in days makes things sound more imminent.
Anyways, as we hit this milestone, how do you all hedge things? I understand that 100 days is still an eternity in politics and that a lot can change between now and election day. That said, I still feel it’s a good time to gauge things.
My feeling is that if the election were held today, Joe Biden would win. COVID-19 has really hurt Donald Trump and his push to have schools open in the fall appears to be backfiring. Also, the whole Black Lives Matter movement and rioting is making Trump appear more disconnected from the American people and unable to properly manage things. I think Trump’s move to have federal agents in Portland is an attempt to control things, but that too is backfiring as it makes him look too authoritative.
But…the election is not being held today. It’s being held in a shade under 100 days from now, which means Trump has time to get the virus under control and get the economy back up and running. I highly doubt Trump will do either of those things, which leads to the most likely path for Trump to pursue: Create discord, division, and distrust in America’s electoral process.
It’s pretty clear that Trump and his campaign sought help from the Russians in 2016 and there’s no reason to not think they’ll try to pull a similar stunt in 2020. Hell, they already did. Have we forgotten Ukraine?
I think that is the biggest thing to look out for. Not for Trump to fix things and get things back to normal. No way that happens. But Trump pulling something that gets people to think Joe Biden is more crooked, mentally unfit, and dangerous than him is possible. It’s even more possible for Trump to pull this off with some help from his Russian friends.
And, if all else fails, don’t be shocked for Trump to complain about mail in balloting and how that can’t be trusted even though voter fraud is extremely rare. In addition to plotting how he can steal the election, Trump is probably plotting how he’ll react to a loss and fight it. That’s what should have all of us and especially the Biden campaign on guard.